In the late 2010s China used its “Belt and Road” foreign policy to consolidate leadership of the Asia-Pacific region, seeking support from Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Kazakhstan and Australia. Initially re-basing its economy away from the dollar, a new Yen-Rouble-Renminbi standard was created competing with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.
People have increasingly ‘shifted to passive’ – in the 2020s this was exemplified by the shift from smart cars to semi-autonomous cars to full automation, with people finally letting go of safety concerns.
Today, this philosophy is part of our lives, pervading health provision with automated health scans and bio-screening in our showers, and revolutionizing personal finances –no need to file a tax return or worry about missing a payment deadline any more.
Governments have almost total visibility of financial flows –citizens having given up control in return for convenience, economic support and security.
In many countries, mega-cities – the economic and resource powerhouses – have taken on the role of the state, offering shelter to climate and political refugees – including those displaced by rising sea levels.
People are willing to pay more for low-risk flights. And airlines are keen to reduce risks too – every individual now has a risk rating, those who agree to be ‘bio- chipped’ and regularly monitored can travel more freely and AAA+ travelers get prioritized access. Since 2032 everyone in Europe has been chipped at birth.
People are warier of sharing their data following a series of high profile data breaches and cyber attacks.
While trust is low, few can afford to opt out of sharing, as access to full healthcare and benefits depends on it – states provide only a basic minimum.
Borders are open, though a wave of near-pandemics have made travelers increasingly cautious – to avoid quarantine, travelers must consent to continuous monitoring during travel.
There is growing corporal inequality – the cosmetically enhanced enjoy cybernetic implants, access to personalized healthcare, life-saving treatments and replacement organs. Those who can’t afford such body-work plans receive only basic state healthcare, although some companies now offer health upgrades in return for the right to use your brainpower while you sleep.
WORKFORCE
Aviation depends on high-skilled employees, whether pilots, engineers, air traffic controllers, or safety inspectors. In the medium term there may be skill supply issues due to the increased demand from emerging markets.
In the longer term we may see more fundamental changes to the nature of work. Already there are shifts towards on-demand work, taking advantage of new technologies to allow people to work when and where they want.
New technologies including AI and automation will fundamentally change what work is perceived to be.
While some jobs in the aviation industry will be shielded, it is likely that others will evolve e.g. customer service will focus on the tricky rather than the routine, and accounting and legal work could be disrupted by blockchain-type technologies.
And as the nature of work changes globally, expectations of remuneration and incentive structures will also shift. The work ‘contract’ – moral as well as legal – will change. This is likely to be accompanied by unrest in the workforce.
In the short-term the industry will need to invest in skills and structures to keep pace with a changing workforce, and position aviation as a sought-after industry for young job-seekers. It may also need to use new technology to ‘fast-track’ the gaining of ‘experience’, specifically for pilots.
In the medium to long-term it will be necessary to manage the transition to automation, which may require a smaller workforce. This transition will need to be managed with the unions and regulators.
Technology in self-driving cars may pave the way for more relaxed attitudes to automation. At the same time, there will be risks around the co-existence of piloted and pilotless flights in the same airspace (a risk already present with drones).
Technology already enables pilotless flights. Freight shipment represents an opportunity for airlines to develop cutting-edge technology without watering down their commitment to passenger safety.
Meanwhile, competition for traditional parts of the freight supply chain may come from new places, for example Deliveroo in the UK is pitching itself as a next-generation logistics company.
Airlines need to identify these challenges ahead of time and act on this research, by inviting new operators to link to established hubs and airlines, and potentially by taking ownership stakes in likely challengers.
The industry could highlight the opportunities for startups to provide services that complement those offered by airlines in transport, MRO and other sectors.
Safety checks, loading and transport of freight could be automated progressively, bringing efficiencies for freight forwarders and reducing costs for airlines.
The industry should work with other industries to ensure that aviation benefits from standards and regulation developed in other domains.
Regulators need to understand that the rules for the aviation industry will require a separate elaboration process from that followed for driverless cars.
PANDEMICS
There is likely to be increased risk from infectious diseases, particularly given the rapid pace of urbanization. The traditional view is that airports can be a hotbed of contagion. In a world where restrictions are in force, however, the airport becomes a strategic asset for countries to control flow and spread.
As technology drives down the cost of detecting, diagnosing and treating infections, airports and airlines may increasingly become assets in managing infectious disease, rather than being perceived as a risk.
Airlines may be asked to take on more responsibility for monitoring and mitigating the spread of pandemics, despite the fact that responsibility usually lies with governments. The industry may benefit from working with WHO to ensure governments are aware of their role in pandemic response.
The role of airlines as a strategic asset supporting governments’ public health objectives for both detection and containment of diseases could also be highlighted.
Additional screening regulations are likely: the industry should advocate for such regulation to be harmonized globally and ‘smart’.
More changes may need to be made to improve the processing of passengers, such as standardizing screening, introducing new technologies, ensuring passenger data is available and streamlining security.
With the increasing risk of pandemics, a global approach to managing infectious diseases becomes ever more important. While airlines need to be vigilant and prepared, IATA should also stress the increasingly important role that all stakeholders, particularly governments, need to play to ensure that responses are in line with WHO guidance and international health regulations.
This is a glimpse of the the Future of the Airline Industry as outlined in the IATA report, updated 2018.
Read the whole document: https://www.iata.org/en/policy/future-of-airlines-2035/
Wow, this is really dystopian.
“While trust is low, few can afford to opt out of sharing, as access to full healthcare and benefits depends on it – states provide only a basic minimum.
Borders are open, though a wave of near-pandemics have made travelers increasingly cautious – to avoid quarantine, travelers must consent to continuous monitoring during travel.”
2018? It’s like they had a crystal ball and could sway society through fear